The “Signs of Mining 2025” Index, developed by Vantaz Group and the Center for Copper and Mining Studies (CESCO), shows a marked level of optimism in the sector's economic and investment projections for the medium term. However, there is still a perception of uncertainty regarding the international macroeconomic environment due to the tariff war, as well as in relation to structural aspects such as permitting. Translated with DeepL.com (free version).
Santiago, Chile, June 12, 2025. The seventh edition of the “Signs of Mining” Index, prepared by Vantaz Group and the Center for Copper and Mining Studies (CESCO), confirmed for the second consecutive year a sustained shift toward optimism in the Chilean mining industry. However, the study also notes that the main structural barriers remain: permitting and socio-environmental conflicts once again top the ranking of “bottlenecks” or structural obstacles, demonstrating that the environment continues to be the greatest challenge to unlocking new projects.
With more than 380 responses collected between April and May of this year, the study provides an updated view of the mining ecosystem's expectations in terms of economics, regulation, investment, and operating costs. One of the most significant findings is the increase in the overall economic perception index compared to the previous year. For the first time since 2021, expectations for the economic situation exceeded the 50-point threshold, reflecting renewed confidence in the country's recovery.
Jorge Cantallopts, executive director of CESCO, praised the strategic role of the study. "Beyond the positive results, what is important is that the Index allows us to take the pulse of the mining ecosystem with a broad and systematic view. It shows us an industry that is regaining its optimism, but which continues to face structural challenges that cannot be resolved with expectations alone. This presents us with an opportunity to strengthen the conversation between industry players, based on data, and to advance a shared agenda that will accelerate investment and better respond to the challenges of the environment," he said.
Added to this is an even more positive outlook for mining investment, which peaked at 80 points, the highest value since the index was created and 12 points higher than in 2024.
For the first time, the survey included a technical appendix analyzing perceptions of availability and dependence on critical inputs in the face of possible tariff measures from China. The highest level of risk is concentrated in components and parts, as well as tires, both because of their high dependence on the Chinese market and their low local availability. It should be noted that there is also concern about the local availability of greases, oils, and lubricants. The expected impact in these cases would be immediate and direct, reflected in price increases and operational pressure for the sector.
In addition, pressure on the workforce is intensifying in a context of skilled human capital shortages and competition to attract talent. Concerns remain about the impact of tariffs and dependence on external suppliers, especially for key inputs such as tires and spare parts.
Daniela Desormeaux, Director of Studies at Vantaz Group, argues that the results of the technical annex reveal a type of vulnerability that is not very visible but is key to the sector's operational sustainability: "Today, it is not enough to look at prices or demand: the bottlenecks are in access to critical inputs. This requires incorporating logistical and geopolitical risk variables into mining planning, with a long-term view that anticipates disruptions and avoids reactive responses," she says.
Impact of the “Tariff War”
The perception of the impact of tariff escalation on the copper and steel industries is largely negative. In the case of copper, 70% of respondents believe that the tariff measures will have an unfavorable or very unfavorable effect on the value chain. For steel, expectations are even more pessimistic: 73% anticipate a negative effect, with a high proportion of responses rating the impact as “very unfavorable” (20%).
This result is particularly relevant for mining, as steel is a critical component of grinding balls, a key input in the production process. The figures reflect the high exposure to imports from China and the potential direct effects of tariffs on the sector's supply and operating costs.
For more details on the study, we invite you to review the full report here.
